A Football Meets Data projection places Roma in the Champions League playoffs—and suggests a possible all-Italian tie against Napoli.
Roma’s return to the Champions League is approaching, with Gian Piero Gasperini’s side set to begin its campaign away to Fenerbahçe next Thursday.
Following the draw, attention quickly turned toward Roma’s eight league-phase fixtures and how many points the Giallorossi may need to continue their European journey.
How the Champions League Projection Works
A projection produced by Football Meets Data has calculated a possible final league-phase table using the win probability for each individual fixture.
Under its methodology, three points are awarded to the team considered the favorite. If neither side has at least a 43% probability of winning, the match is recorded as a draw and both teams receive one point.
The model only plays each fixture once. It should therefore be viewed as a single projected outcome rather than the average result of thousands of simulations.
Roma Projected to Reach the Playoffs
According to the resulting table, Roma would finish inside the playoff positions and advance beyond the initial league phase.
Teams finishing from ninth to 24th place enter a two-legged playoff, while the top eight qualify directly for the round of 16. The bottom 12 are eliminated from European competition.
The projection therefore suggests that Roma would extend their Champions League campaign but would still need to navigate an additional knockout tie to reach the last 16.
Gasperini has already described the competition as an opportunity to discover whether Roma can reproduce their domestic level on the European stage.
Possible Playoff Meeting With Napoli
The most intriguing element of the projection is Roma’s potential opponent. Based on the predicted finishing positions, the Giallorossi would have a 50% chance of facing Napoli in the playoff round.
That would create an all-Italian European tie with a place in the Champions League round of 16 at stake.
Roma’s immediate focus, however, will be their opening trip to Istanbul. Gasperini has already selected his 24-player UEFA squad for the 2026/27 Champions League, while UEFA disciplinary proceedings involving Fenerbahçe, Mattéo Guendouzi and Mason Greenwood have added another storyline before the fixture.
The projection offers an early indication of Roma’s possible path, but the final standings will ultimately be determined across eight demanding matches.
Source: Football Meets Data
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