Roma’s 2-0 victory over Torino extended their perfect start to the Serie A season, but the expected goals data provides a deeper view of how Gian Piero Gasperini’s side earned the result.
Expected goals—or xG—assigns a value to every shot based on the historical likelihood of a similar opportunity resulting in a goal. The metric cannot explain every aspect of a performance, and different statistical models can produce slightly different results, but it remains a useful tool for assessing chance quality.
According to data from Understat, Roma generated 2.33 xG from 14 attempts, while Torino recorded 0.71 xG from seven shots.
The figures suggest the Giallorossi deserved their victory, although the two teams’ most important opportunities reveal that the match was less comfortable than the final score suggests.
Roma generate another strong attacking performance
Roma averaged approximately 0.16 xG per shot, demonstrating that the team continued to create relatively valuable opportunities despite attacking with less intensity than during its opening league matches.
Three chances accounted for most of Roma’s expected-goals total.
Donyell Malen’s opening goal carried a value of 0.84 xG, making it comfortably the best opportunity of the match. The Dutchman battled through contact and finished while losing his balance, giving Roma the lead in the 40th minute.
Malen had already attempted an earlier shot worth 0.11 xG, while his missed header from Mario Hermoso’s delivery was valued at 0.59 xG.
Paulo Dybala also missed a significant opportunity when he directed a header wide. That attempt carried a value of 0.31 xG.
Together, those chances demonstrate that Roma’s attacking performance could have produced more than one goal before stoppage time.
Pisilli converts Roma’s lowest-probability chance
Niccolò Pisilli completed the scoring in the 93rd minute with a powerful finish from inside the penalty area.
Surprisingly, the opportunity was valued at only 0.06 xG.
That means similar attempts would be expected to produce a goal approximately six times out of 100. Pisilli therefore converted one of Roma’s lowest-probability shots of the match after Gianluca Mancini recovered possession near the corner.
The midfielder’s ability to score from a difficult opportunity highlights the value of players outperforming the underlying probability of their chances.
Pisilli now has two league goals from only 0.70 cumulative xG, making him Roma’s biggest attacking overperformer at this stage of the season.
His latest finish also provided a memorable conclusion to his first start of the campaign—even if a calf cramp prevented him from celebrating properly.
Torino create only seven shots but threaten twice
Roma limiting Torino to seven total attempts was an encouraging defensive achievement.
However, the hosts’ overall total of 0.71 xG does not entirely reflect the danger created by two second-half opportunities involving Giovanni Simeone.
The first arrived in the 58th minute and carried a value of 0.27 xG. Nine minutes later, Simeone received another chance worth 0.29 xG.
Those two attempts represented approximately 79% of Torino’s entire expected-goals total. Roma therefore controlled most of the match but suffered two defensive breakdowns capable of changing the result.
Mile Svilar’s one-on-one intervention was crucial. If Torino had equalized during that period, Roma would have been forced to chase the match after losing some of their first-half control.
The clean sheet was deserved across the full performance, but Gasperini will want to eliminate those isolated mistakes before Saturday’s meeting with Inter.
Malen leads Serie A in goals and xG
Malen’s exceptional start is supported by the underlying data.
The Roma forward has scored six Serie A goals from 5.54 xG, placing him first in the league for both actual goals and expected goals.
His scoring total is therefore sustainable rather than the product of an extreme finishing streak. Malen is slightly outperforming his xG, but the difference of 0.46 is relatively small.
Most importantly, Roma are consistently creating high-value opportunities for him.
His goal against Torino was worth 0.84 xG, while his missed header carried a value of 0.59. That means Malen alone accumulated approximately 1.54 xG from his opportunities in Turin.
The Dutchman has already joined Francesco Totti in Roma’s history books by scoring six times across the club’s opening four league matches.
What the xG tells us about Roma’s victory
The overall numbers support the impression that Roma deserved to win.
Gasperini’s team generated more than three times Torino’s expected-goals total, attempted twice as many shots and created the match’s clearest opportunities.
At the same time, the data identifies two areas for improvement.
Roma should have converted more of their high-quality first-half chances, while Torino’s two opportunities between the 58th and 67th minutes demonstrate that the defensive performance was not entirely risk-free.
The 2-0 victory in Turin was ultimately built on sustainable chance creation, an elite goalkeeper and a low-probability stoppage-time finish from Pisilli.
Final xG: Torino 0.71-2.33 Roma
Shots: Torino 7-14 Roma
Roma xG per shot: 0.16
Highest-value chance: Malen goal, 0.84 xG
Lowest-value Roma goal: Pisilli, 0.06 xG
Data source: Understat
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